Carmaking: Electric Shock and Awe

汽车制造：电击与震慑

A Tesla bull debates a Tesla bear

特斯拉看涨与看跌之辩

Tesla’s share price will travel in only one direction – up. Despite accelerating in “ludicrous” mode, by more than 700% in 2020, Tesla has plenty left in the tank, to borrow a phrase that the firm is consigning to history. Its impact on the car industry cannot be overstated. But it is a mistake to judge it by the standards of the firms it will leave in its tracks. Tesla is a technology firm, set to disrupt not just carmaking but personal transport, energy (thanks to its battery technology and solar power), robotics, health care and more besides.

特斯拉的股价走势将只有一个方向——涨。尽管它以“狂暴”模式在2020年上行超过700%，但用一句正在被这家公司踢进历史的话来说，它“油箱里的油还多着呢”。特斯拉对汽车产业的影响怎么说都不为过。但用那些将被它碾压的公司的标准来评判它是不对的。它是一家科技公司，要颠覆的不仅仅是汽车制造，还有个人交通、能源（得益于它的电池技术和太阳能）、机器人、医疗，以及其他很多。

Its valuation is justified by its potential to dominate the future of mobility alone. Operating margins were close to 7% in the first nine months of 2020, higher than any big rival’s – and rising. Its market is exploding. Electric vehicles (EVs) now make up around 3% of all car sales, of which Tesla accounts for a fifth. As regulations tighten and ranks of climate-worriers swell, a third of all cars sold globally will be electric by 2030 – rising to over half ten years later. Even if Tesla won’t make 20m EVs a year by 2030, as its boss, Elon Musk, hopes, it could control 25-30% of the EV market.

单是有潜力主导未来的出行这一点就可证明特斯拉的市值是合理的。2020年前九个月，它的营运利润率接近7%，高于所有大型竞争对手——而且还在上升。它的市场呈爆发式增长。目前，电动汽车约占汽车总销量的3%，而特斯拉又占其中的五分之一。随着法规的收紧以及担忧气候变化的群体扩大，到2030年电动汽车将占到全球汽车总销量的三分之一——再过十年将增长到一半以上。即使特斯拉不能像它的老板伊隆·马斯克所希望的那样，到2030年年产2000万辆电动汽车，它也可能掌控电动汽车市场的25%到30%。

Tesla’s “production hell” is in the past. It just about hit a pre-pandemic delivery target of 500,000 cars in 2020 and rapidly erected a new factory in China – which on January 18th delivered its first Model Y, a small SUV. Another will come online shortly in Germany. So will a new battery “gigafactory” in Texas. This, and the ease with which it raised $12bn of capital amid the Covid-19 crisis, shows it can expand at will.

特斯拉的“生产地狱”已经成为过去。它在2020年基本实现了新冠疫情爆发前制定的50万辆的交付目标，并迅速在中国新建了一家工厂——于1月18日交付了第一辆小型SUV“Model Y”。另一家工厂很快将在德国投产。还有一家新的电池“超级工厂”也将在得克萨斯投产。以上种种，加上它在新冠危机期间轻松融资120亿美元，显示了它随心所欲扩张规模的能力。

The firm’s proven knack for speedy innovation will let it keep an unassailable technology lead over both established carmakers, struggling to free themselves of the legacy of internal combustion, and newcomers looking to steal its crown. Like other tech Goliaths such as Apple, its products will continue to define the category. Mr. Musk has remade the car into a connected electronics device that will soon drive itself. Autonomous technology is already fitted to many Teslas, awaiting regulators to approve it. This will put Mr. Musk in the front seat of the robotaxi as the world moves towards mobility services.

特斯拉已经证明了自己在快速创新上的天分，而这将让它保持牢不可破的技术领先优势，无论是对难以摆脱内燃机遗产的老牌汽车制造商，还是对觊觎它领导地位的新来者。与苹果等科技巨头一样，它的产品将继续定义一个行业。马斯克已经将汽车改造成了一种很快就能自主驾驶的联网电子设备。许多特斯拉车型都已配备了无人驾驶技术，只待监管机构批准。这让马斯克在世界朝着出行服务行进之时坐上了无人出租车的前排座椅。

Tesla’s greatest asset is Mr. Musk, a visionary spearheading rocket trips to Mars, neuroscience, grid-scale batteries and other transformational technologies. Investing in Tesla is a bet on his genius for turning the future into dollars.

富有远见卓识的马斯克是特斯拉最宝贵的资产，他引领着造火箭上火星、神经科学、电网级电池和其他革命性技术。投资特斯拉就是押注马斯克把未来转化为美元的天赋。

Tesla’s share price can travel in only one direction – reverse. A market value of $800bn, equal to that of the next eight biggest carmakers combined, is predicated on Elon Musk’s shake-up of the industry. Building a brand swiftly and making electric cars trendy is a real achievement. But Tesla’s revenues come from selling cars. Sales are rising – yet would need to swell seven-fold to match Toyota’s. Good luck.

特斯拉的股价走势只会有一个方向——跌。它8000亿美元的市值——相当于紧随其后的八大汽车制造商的总和——是基于对马斯克颠覆汽车产业的预期。能迅速建立一个品牌并让电动汽车流行起来，它确实成就斐然。但特斯拉的收入来自销售汽车。尽管销量在增长，但需要增长七倍才能与丰田匹敌。祝它好运。

Yes, Tesla missed a delivery target of 500,000 cars in 2020 by a mere whisker. But it once said it would be making 1m a year by now. A goal of 20m electric cars by 2030 looks like another wild over-promise. Mr. Musk has admitted that unless costs are contained the share price may be “crushed like a soufflé under a sledgehammer”.

确实，特斯拉距实现2020年交付50万辆车的目标只差毫厘。但它曾经表示到此时的年产量会是100万辆。实现2030年年产2000万辆的目标看上去又像是满嘴跑火车。马斯克也已承认，除非成本得到控制，否则股价可能会“像大锤下的蛋奶酥一样被砸个稀烂”。

Competition is getting fiercer. Big firms dragged their feet on electrification for a reason. Batteries were costly – and electric cars, niche products for the rich. But prices have fallen, regulations have tightened and buyers want electric vehicles (EVs). The giants promise a traffic jam’s worth: General Motors says it will have 30 models on the market by 2025; Volkswagen Group is eyeing 70 by 2030. Startups, many in China, are powering up. Mr. Musk’s technology lead is running out of road.

竞争日趋激烈。过去大公司在电气化上裹足不前是有原因的。电池很贵，电动汽车因此只是富人喜欢的小众产品。但电池价格已经下降，而法规收紧了，买车的人想要电动车了。巨头们如今的行动势将造成“大堵车”：通用汽车表示到2025年将有30款车上市，大众计划到2030年共推出70款。包括很多中国企业在内的创业公司正开足马力。马斯克的技术领先优势正在渐渐丧失。

Rising profits in 2020 might reassure investors, but come mostly from selling carbon credits. And Tesla is not immune to the traditional forces that govern carmaking. Some models are ageing. Sales of Model S and Model X are falling and the firm is losing market share in Europe. In the first nine months of 2020 VW, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi and Hyundai-Kia all sold more EVs in Europe than Tesla did, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.

特斯拉在2020年持续增长的利润可能会让投资者安心，但这些利润主要来自出售碳信用额度。特斯拉并不对支配汽车制造的传统因素免疫。它的一些车型正在老化。Model S和Model X的销量都在下降，公司在欧洲的市场份额也在缩减。根据施密特汽车研究公司（Schmidt Automotive Research）的数据，2020年前九个月，大众、雷诺-日产-三菱以及现代起亚在欧洲的电动汽车销量都超过了特斯拉。

The hype about autonomous cars has worn off as developing self-driving systems has proven tricky. Tesla’s pseudo-autonomous system requires constant monitoring by the driver. The full autonomy that would give robotaxis the freedom of the open road is years away. All this suggests Tesla will remain a niche luxury firm.

事实证明无人驾驶系统的研发绝非易事，对无人车的大肆炒作因而也渐平息。特斯拉的伪自主系统需要司机全程监控。能让机器人出租车自由行驶在开放道路上的那种完全自主系统还需要等待多年。所有这些都表明特斯拉仍将是一家小众豪华车公司。

Then there is Mr. Musk. He has toned down erratic tweets, like the one in 2018 implying Tesla was about to go private, which got him into hot water with regulators. But he is spreading himself too thinly between Tesla, SpaceX’s rocketry and other ventures. The strains from Tesla’s expansion could again bring out his demons – and spell disaster for shareholders.

还有马斯克自己。他已经不再像过去那样在推特上口不择言，比如在2018年发推暗示特斯拉将私有化就让他惹来了监管麻烦。但是，他现在要兼顾特斯拉、SpaceX的火箭技术和其他项目，精力过于分散。特斯拉扩张带来的压力可能会再次释放他体内的小恶魔，给股东们带来灾难。